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Author Topic: CITES screwup  (Read 5380 times)
Walkerman
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« Reply #40 on: January 22, 2017, 03:48:39 PM »

This is the relevant statement

"Representatives of the agency have said that initial turnaround times on certificate application may be on the order of months."

So, guitar makers who make guitars outside the home country borders cannot import or export them. Guitar makers like Larrivee cannot export.
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ducktrapper
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« Reply #41 on: January 22, 2017, 06:19:00 PM »

I too often wonder if there is some regret (business-wise) over that decision. This issue of CITES and the Cdn $ exchange rate which was about par at the time, since dropping almost a third.
This certainly seems to be the case in Canada. From the outside looking into the Guitar Business it would now make sense for Larrivée to produce guitars in the US for the USA only and have the Canadian operation supply the world. Seems living and working in paradise ( Oxnard) has a cost  blush

Don't forget, even with both factories, guitars were going back and forth to be finished elsewhere. 
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C-10-4-me
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« Reply #42 on: January 24, 2017, 04:38:08 AM »

Here is a snapshot(very small one at that)of the guitar manufacturing industry in the U.S. I have no interest in paying for more info🙂

Industry Report - Industry SWOT Analysis Chapter
The Acoustic and Electric Guitar Manufacturing industry is in the mature stage of its economic life cycle. The industry is characterized by a declining number of players, slow technological change and brand awareness. Industry Value Added (IVA), which measures an industry's contribution to the overall economy, is expected to increase at an annualized rate of 0.9%, over the 10 years to 2021.

In contrast, the US GDP is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 2.2% during the same period. Typically, an industry is considered to be in the mature stage of its economic life cycle when growth in IVA trends with GDP growth over a 10-year period...


https://www.ibisworld.com/industry/acoustic-electric-guitar-manufacturing.html
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« Reply #43 on: January 24, 2017, 08:59:53 AM »

That is a very meaningful statistic in my opinion.

Someone in another recent post suggested that the market is saturated with too many guitars.  I believe that is true.  There are only so many potential consumers of guitars.  Many of them will only buy one guitar and hardly play it.  Others, like many members of this forum, will buy several.  There are so many already-made guitars out there that it's hard to justify buying a new one unless it happens to be something very unique or something you are exactly looking for and can't get any other way.
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George
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« Reply #44 on: January 24, 2017, 02:44:22 PM »

Here is a snapshot(very small one at that)of the guitar manufacturing industry in the U.S. I have no interest in paying for more info🙂

Industry Report - Industry SWOT Analysis Chapter
The Acoustic and Electric Guitar Manufacturing industry is in the mature stage of its economic life cycle. The industry is characterized by a declining number of players, slow technological change and brand awareness. Industry Value Added (IVA), which measures an industry's contribution to the overall economy, is expected to increase at an annualized rate of 0.9%, over the 10 years to 2021.

In contrast, the US GDP is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 2.2% during the same period. Typically, an industry is considered to be in the mature stage of its economic life cycle when growth in IVA trends with GDP growth over a 10-year period...


https://www.ibisworld.com/industry/acoustic-electric-guitar-manufacturing.html

Great information, thanks.  It sounds to me like we as players need to start encouraging more youngsters to pick up a real guitar instead of the plethora of synthesized ones that require no skill.  It will be very sad indeed if we wind up with very few people that make real music on real instruments...
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George
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« Reply #45 on: January 24, 2017, 04:01:02 PM »

Great information, thanks.  It sounds to me like we as players need to start encouraging more youngsters to pick up a real guitar instead of the plethora of synthesized ones that require no skill.  It will be very sad indeed if we wind up with very few people that make real music on real instruments...

There's still plenty young folks making music...  I may not like or understand it, but it speaks to them and their fans, and I say good for them.  I'm not sure how selling millions of guitars (or violins, or pianos, or...) that never get used helps the craft, though.  We've been led down a path of rampant consumerism.  Eventually, that has to end...  maybe.

Ed
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Strings4Him
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« Reply #46 on: January 24, 2017, 04:04:04 PM »

That info is from 2011, so a bit dated.
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Mikeymac
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« Reply #47 on: January 24, 2017, 05:49:37 PM »

There's still plenty young folks making music...  I may not like or understand it, but it speaks to them and their fans, and I say good for them.  I'm not sure how selling millions of guitars (or violins, or pianos, or...) that never get used helps the craft, though.  We've been led down a path of rampant consumerism.  Eventually, that has to end...  maybe.

Ed

That's one way to look at it Ed - and I don't deny that we're hooked on consumption. But all those instruments also represent jobs that provide people with an income and a way to live.


Great information, thanks.  It sounds to me like we as players need to start encouraging more youngsters to pick up a real guitar instead of the plethora of synthesized ones that require no skill.  It will be very sad indeed if we wind up with very few people that make real music on real instruments...


This is what Taylor Guitars says they're trying to do with their new, lower market "Academy" models (introduced at NAMM): appeal to persons who might want to take up the instrument, but are often turned off by the low quality of what's available for beginners.

Sure, it might just be Taylor's latest marketing ploy, but I think it's a good one - it's aimed at what we're talking about here - IOW, how do we get more young people (or even older people) interested in making their own music? A good quality instrument at a decent price is certainly a start (and then you can upsell them to their next Taylor, right? They're no dummies!)
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« Reply #48 on: January 24, 2017, 06:55:35 PM »

That's one way to look at it Ed - and I don't deny that we're hooked on consumption. But all those instruments also represent jobs that provide people with an income and a way to live.


When people quit buying those guitars, those folks are out of luck.

If we did manufacturing to employ people, there'd be a lot less machines in agriculture...  I don't see agribusiness shutting down megatractors and hiring extra workers.  Similarly, I don't see guitar factories scrapping cnc machines and hiring extra folks with spokeshaves. 

I don't know what the answer is, but things are changing and somehow we need to learn to change with it.

Ed
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Mikeymac
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« Reply #49 on: January 24, 2017, 07:26:47 PM »


When people quit buying those guitars, those folks are out of luck.

If we did manufacturing to employ people, there'd be a lot less machines in agriculture...  I don't see agribusiness shutting down megatractors and hiring extra workers.  Similarly, I don't see guitar factories scrapping cnc machines and hiring extra folks with spokeshaves. 

I don't know what the answer is, but things are changing and somehow we need to learn to change with it.

Ed

Technology keeps advancing - change is a constant. We will always adapt...and experience the growing pains/change pains that go along with it. People get retrained (or replaced by a new generation with different skills when they retire).

To try to stop advancing would simply be to pick a period in time in which to freeze your lifestyle and culture. This is what the Amish have done. It's not that they don't use technology; they've just chosen to "freeze" in a previous era's technology and stay there (for the most part).

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Walkerman
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« Reply #50 on: January 24, 2017, 08:52:31 PM »

Technology keeps advancing - change is a constant. We will always adapt...and experience the growing pains/change pains that go along with it. People get retrained (or replaced by a new generation with different skills when they retire).

To try to stop advancing would simply be to pick a period in time in which to freeze your lifestyle and culture. This is what the Amish have done. It's not that they don't use technology; they've just chosen to "freeze" in a previous era's technology and stay there (for the most part).



It might be relevant to define "advancing." 
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Mikeymac
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« Reply #51 on: January 24, 2017, 10:53:32 PM »

It might be relevant to define "advancing." 

Sure ... "advancing" would be the adoption of the most recent, most modern technology available for a particular task or use.

Whether the most recent technology is an improvement will always be up for debate, because there is always a cost to someone somewhere when new technologies replace older ones. Therefore, I'm not necessarily using "advancing" in the sense of "better" or "improvement" - but often it is.

The problem comes from letting technology drive our lives rather than reigning in and using technology wisely. Current usage of cell phones and social media would be two examples of this... and this is a judgment call on my part, of course, but in many cases, the use and overuse of these particular technologies do not improve persons' quality of life. They don't necessary improve communication or create a better social environment (because of their abuse).
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« Reply #52 on: January 24, 2017, 11:13:49 PM »

Sure ... "advancing" would be the adoption of the most recent, most modern technology available for a particular task or use.

Whether the most recent technology is an improvement will always be up for debate, because there is always a cost to someone somewhere when new technologies replace older ones. Therefore, I'm not necessarily using "advancing" in the sense of "better" or "improvement" - but often it is.

The problem comes from letting technology drive our lives rather than reigning in and using technology wisely. Current usage of cell phones and social media would be two examples of this... and this is a judgment call on my part, of course, but in many cases, the use and overuse of these particular technologies do not improve persons' quality of life. They don't necessary improve communication or create a better ssocial environment (because of their abuse).


Well, that's the rub ..... is modern technology in and of itself an advancement.  If you want a cheaper guitar, buy a mostly machine made one.  If you want a great guitar, you go to a boutique luthier.  If you want the best, it is a1920's Lloyd Loar Gibson mando, or a pre war Martin or an ancient Stradivarius violin.
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George
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« Reply #53 on: January 25, 2017, 01:23:10 AM »

There's still plenty young folks making music...  I may not like or understand it, but it speaks to them and their fans, and I say good for them.  I'm not sure how selling millions of guitars (or violins, or pianos, or...) that never get used helps the craft, though.  We've been led down a path of rampant consumerism.  Eventually, that has to end...  maybe.

Ed

I hope you are correct about it ending Ed.  My point is/was though I see some very talented youngsters playing real instruments on Youtube videos, there just don't seem to be enough of them to keep the craft going.  I have 5 kids and 11 grandkids, not a musician among them.  Not for the lack of my trying, technology just takes its toll by making other distractions much easier for them to indulge...
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« Reply #54 on: January 25, 2017, 02:07:13 AM »

I hope you are correct about it ending Ed.  My point is/was though I see some very talented youngsters playing real instruments on Youtube videos, there just don't seem to be enough of them to keep the craft going.  I have 5 kids and 11 grandkids, not a musician among them.  Not for the lack of my trying, technology just takes its toll by making other distractions much easier for them to indulge...

Yea, a lot of people forget that it comes down to entertainment and other functions.  People can indulge themselves just staring at a phone screen for hours so kids are less likely to engage in challenging activities like an instrument, physical activity, etc.  I grew up in the 80's and though we had video games, cable TV and other garbage, it was the pre-internet era so we still got out and did things like played instruments, rode bicycles, etc.  Now, guys don't even have to be in a band to get chicks, they just need to create an online persona and fish around on the internet long enough.  I saw this social change take place in my 20's and it's absolutely bizarre to see where we've ended up after about 15 years of mainstream internet.  When I talk to guys just 10 years younger than me, the mindset is often very different, more adverse to challenges and work.  There's an entitlement and gravitation toward the path of least resistance.

I don't want to come off as a curmudgeon that is trying to validate his generation or interests.  I'm not threatened by the idea that the world is passing me by.  Technology has enriched my life greatly.  But, there's something to be said about physical and mental health in the wake of certain social changes.  Is it coincidence that obesity rates in children and adults alike have doubled in the last couple of decades in the US?  A guitar won't change that but the moving away from instruments isn't just a change in musical taste, it's a cultural shift toward inactivity an indulgence in the things that are the easiest and most instantly gratifying.

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« Reply #55 on: January 25, 2017, 03:52:28 PM »

Perhaps we are amusing ourselves to death?
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« Reply #56 on: January 30, 2017, 03:43:46 AM »

From Fretboard Journal, re: guitar company layoffs...

The economy. Talking to manufacturers, the general consensus among everyone was that last year was a tough one, even for some of the biggest and most stable brands. I heard stories of layoffs and shortened weeks for workers and more. I know it’s blasphemy to say but there may be simply too many guitars (new and used) floating around for the sheer number of us living guitarists. Despite that, most of the brands we talked to were pretty upbeat for 2017 and a few of the stores we talked to had their best years ever in 2016.

Ed
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ducktrapper
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« Reply #57 on: January 30, 2017, 03:52:58 AM »

I said a long time back that there were probably enough guitars already built to satisfy the demand for guitars for a long, long time. You know, especially considering that millions of guitars have been bought by people who will never play them.     
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« Reply #58 on: January 30, 2017, 04:45:00 AM »

Is it only going in and out of International airports that people with guitars need to worry about?

How about domestic flights inside the US?

Don't forget ivory.  It's been used in some vintage guitars. Now rosewood is a concern.

My two rosewood guitars are vintage. But proving that at customs wouldn't be easy. It would make sense not to travel with guitars with Rosewood. This guy took a laminate (plywood) guitar instead.
https://www.fretboardjournal.com/features/guitar-lovers-guide-cites-conservation-treaty/
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« Reply #59 on: February 05, 2017, 02:37:27 AM »

some discussion c/o Fretboard Journal:

https://www.fretboardjournal.com/podcast/podcast-127-cites-rosewood-updates-john-thomas/
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